By Barbara Diamond
VUCA is an acronym coined by the Army War College. It stands for Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous. Its original point was to help the Army think about the strategic environment for decisions about training, leading and stationing forces. Do you feel that you are living in a VUCA world?
Nowadays, it applies to the settings for work, philanthropy, global business, leadership, and, most recently, public education. The KnowledgeWorks Foundation / Institute for the Future 2006-2016 Map of Future Forces Affecting Education is a provocative picture of the forces that will play out in the urban United States over a decade. “VUCA Communities” is a “hot spot” on the map. That means that VUCA presents both challenges and opportunities for big improvements both in public education and in our community life together.
Does Cincinnati experience this VUCA environment? In my view, the answer is yes.
What is volatile? The job market. And it goes both ways. The city is losing manufacturing and finance jobs, but it is gaining global jobs, through “in-sourcing” and our global companies. And in fact the whole world feels volatile: change is accelerating.
What is uncertain? We may feel that we are “beyond” September 11, but loud noises, network breakdowns and power outages still scare us, and make us wonder what the future holds.
What is complex? We don’t like to talk about race in many parts of Cincinnati, but it is hard to deny that our race relations remain complex.
What is ambiguous? We seem to be moving toward a consensus that global warming is a real phenomenon, with human causes, but we have a whole new set of questions. Can we address this problem without ruining our economic well-being? What matters most? How much time do we have?
You can add your own examples – they might include your reactions to crime, drugs, gangs, economic inequality, a lack of shared norms, a weakening infrastructure, or whatever else keeps you up at night.
What we have learned about handling the challenge of the VUCA world is two-fold: First, to cope in this kind of world we need the skills of readiness and resilience. It is impossible to plan for every eventuality, so we need to be ready. Even when we aren’t ready, we need the capacity to bounce back.
Second, there are qualities of leadership that work best in a VUCA world, and they add up to a different kind of VUCA: Vision, Understanding, Clarity, and Agility.
My fondest hope is that we in Cincinnati can cultivate these skills and this kind of leadership, so that we can create the future we want.